Wind AlliesTier 2
at Collinsville Regionals
decks
6
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
15-22-2
overall winrate
41.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.2%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
46.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1305
· median 1255
· range 1192–1526
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1268
Q3 1432
1689
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.5% | -2.8 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -11.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -7.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 53.0% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
