Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 貓腳印-桃園店 Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.4% | 15 | 10-4-1 | 70.0% | 65.8% | 62.4% | +5.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.2% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.8% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 44.0% | -2.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.5% | +1.8 |
| Fire Diana | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Arisanna | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Favorable Winds.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Meltdown | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |