Water AlliesTier 1
at 貓腳印-桃園店 Regional
decks
6
(8.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
20-9-2
overall winrate
67.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.8%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
58.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1340
· range 1140–1393
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1069
Q1 1179
Q3 1362
1536
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 19.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 16.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.9% | +14.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.1% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.3% | +7.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.5% | +8.1 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Seeking Shot, Imperial Recruit, Esteemed Knight. Losers more often ran: Lunete, Frostbinder Priest, Song of Nurturing, Song of Frost.
Seeking Shot
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Imperial Recruit
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Esteemed Knight
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Seasprite Diver
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lunete, Frostbinder Priest
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Song of Nurturing
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Stillwater Patrol
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Life Essence Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seeking Shot | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Conceal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Weaponsmith | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lancelot, Goliath of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Soldier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Mechanist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |