Fire EruptingTier 1
at 貓腳印-桃園店 Regional
decks
3
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-8-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1235
· median 1171
· range 1085–1449
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1069
Q1 1179
Q3 1362
1536
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 19.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.5% | +8.0 |
| Wind Allies | 16.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.1% | +7.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
