EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 8/16 DTR Online Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 2.8% | 24 | 83.3% | 59.0% | 68.3% | 56.0% | 1493 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.4% | 9 | 77.8% | 55.7% | 63.0% | 54.4% | 1312 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 5.6% | 34 | 64.7% | 52.2% | 58.0% | 51.4% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 3 | 4.2% | 31 | 59.7% | 53.2% | 54.8% | 51.6% | 1444 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Rile | 30 | 41.7% | 162 | 56.5% | 52.8% | 54.3% | 51.8% | 1363 | — |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.8% | 10 | 65.0% | 56.1% | 53.9% | 51.8% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.4% | 10 | 50.0% | 54.6% | 51.6% | 53.6% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 1.4% | 9 | 66.7% | 48.7% | 51.2% | 47.5% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 9 | 12.5% | 60 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 50.8% | 50.1% | 1333 | — |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 2 | 2.8% | 21 | 57.1% | 53.1% | 50.6% | 50.4% | 1344 | — |
| 11 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 1.4% | 9 | 50.0% | 56.5% | 48.4% | 51.2% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suzaku | 9 | 12.5% | 55 | 52.7% | 52.4% | 48.4% | 50.1% | 1304 | — |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 2.8% | 19 | 44.7% | 44.0% | 48.0% | 47.0% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 2.8% | 16 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 47.4% | 47.3% | 1557 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.8% | 16 | 46.9% | 45.9% | 47.3% | 47.3% | 1373 | — |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 9 | 12.5% | 55 | 41.8% | 49.2% | 46.4% | 49.8% | 1341 | — |
| 17 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 1.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.0% | 46.0% | 46.6% | 1482 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Genbu | 1 | 1.4% | 10 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 43.8% | 46.6% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.4% | 8 | 37.5% | 50.8% | 43.5% | 49.0% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.4% | 8 | 18.8% | 35.9% | 42.9% | 44.5% | 1353 | — |
| 21 | Fire Exia | 2 | 2.8% | 16 | 46.9% | 49.7% | 42.6% | 47.4% | 1385 | — |
| 22 | Water Fractal | 5 | 6.9% | 28 | 32.1% | 42.8% | 41.4% | 45.8% | 1326 | — |
| 23 | Fire Suited | 1 | 1.4% | 9 | 22.2% | 45.0% | 40.1% | 47.3% | 1266 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 42.4% | 40.0% | 46.6% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Water Genbu | 1 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.0% | 43.9% | 40.0% | 46.3% | 1089 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Water Beast | 1 | 1.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 47.4% | 40.0% | 49.0% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 2.8% | 15 | 23.3% | 37.4% | 37.1% | 43.5% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 28 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 46.7% | 35.1% | 46.4% | 1247 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 4 | 0.0% | 42.8% | 33.9% | 45.4% | 1053 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 2.8% | 18 | 19.4% | 43.0% | 32.3% | 44.7% | 1233 | ↓ low |