Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Regionals by HASUYA
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 73.0% | +13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 39.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +6.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +11.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.3% | -6.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Staggering Strike, Liminal Guide, Smoke Out. Losers more often ran: Fluffy Shopkeep, Flamewreath Call, Suzaku's Command.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Dire Requiem | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |