Water FractalTier 2
at Regionals by HASUYA
decks
5
(7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
11-14-7
overall winrate
45.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1325
· median 1404
· range 1145–1478
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1218
Q3 1408
1730
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 40.7% | -5.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.8% | -13.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.2% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.4% | -1.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
