Water AetherwingTier 2
at Regionals by HASUYA
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Snow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sleety Retreat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Undertow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slipstream Vault | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |