Water AlliesTier 1
at Regionals by HASUYA
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.1% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.7% | +6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |