Water GenbuTier 2
at Regionals by HASUYA
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 48.2% | -1.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -6.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.7% | -3.2 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 64.2% | +13.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wildheart Lyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |