Water Tera MageTier 3
at Regionals by HASUYA
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.6%
avg ELO -7.7 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1220
· median 1220
· range 1220–1220
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1218
Q3 1408
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.0 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
