Fire AggroTier 2
at GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
1-7-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.0%
avg ELO -9.2 per match
expected value
35.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1182
· median 1182
· range 1182–1182
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1274
Q3 1419
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 30.8% | -11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
