Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.4%
avg ELO -9.4 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1245
· median 1245
· range 1156–1334
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1274
Q3 1419
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
