Fire RileTier 1
at GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
24
(54.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
95
45-43-7
overall winrate
51.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1378
· median 1385
· range 1156–1624
(24 pilots with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1274
Q3 1419
1633
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.6% | 11 | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 42.5% | -3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 18 | 6-9-3 | 41.7% | 43.2% | 43.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 46.3% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 58.9% | +4.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 69.2% | +11.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.1% | -5.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.4% | -2.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.8% | +11.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 29.1% | -13.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.6% | +10.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 29.1% | -13.4 |
Decklists · 24 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 30 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 6 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Fast Cure, Heavenly Guide. Losers more often ran: Spirit of Fire, Lorraine, Blademaster, Rending Flames.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 12.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 12.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 14.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 18.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 17.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 17.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
11, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 15.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 17.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 21.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
12, the winner ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 12.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 17.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 21.
Show all 154 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 134 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.27 | 13 | 5 | 12 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.27 | 13 | 5 | 6 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.27 | 12 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.27 | 10 | 2 | 6 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.23 | 4 | 11 | 6 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.23 | 10 | 3 | 12 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.23 | 3 | 10 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.23 | 10 | 3 | 5 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.23 | 1 | 8 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.23 | 10 | 3 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.20 | 13 | 7 | 8 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.20 | 6 | 12 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.20 | 13 | 7 | 7 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.20 | 8 | 2 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.20 | 9 | 3 | 3 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.17 | 4 | 9 | 8 | |
| Under Fire | -0.17 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.17 | 5 | 10 | 4 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.17 | 5 | 10 | 6 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.17 | 4 | 9 | 8 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.17 | 4 | 9 | 8 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.17 | 4 | 9 | 8 | |
| Library Witch | -0.17 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.13 | 2 | 6 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.13 | 8 | 12 | 4 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.13 | 5 | 9 | 4 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.13 | 13 | 9 | 5 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.13 | 9 | 13 | 3 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.13 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.13 | 7 | 11 | 3 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.13 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| Art of War | +0.13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.10 | 5 | 2 | 23 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.10 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.10 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.10 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.10 | 9 | 6 | 8 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.10 | 5 | 8 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.07 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.07 | 5 | 7 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.07 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.07 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.07 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.07 | 6 | 8 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.07 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.07 | 5 | 7 | 16 | |
| Fireball | -0.07 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.07 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.07 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Slime | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.07 | 8 | 6 | 5 | |
| Slime King | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Limitless Slime | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, With the Pack | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.07 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Slime Sovereign | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.07 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 8 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.03 | 9 | 10 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.03 | 6 | 7 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.03 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.03 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.03 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.03 | 6 | 7 | 4 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.03 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.03 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.03 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 |