Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 11 | 7-3-1 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 57.5% | +3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.8% | +1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |