Fire Crux MageTier 1
at GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 53.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |