Fire ExiaTier 1
at GOAT DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-7-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.9%
avg ELO -6.2 per match
expected value
55.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1559
· median 1559
· range 1493–1624
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1274
Q3 1419
1633
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.2% | -22.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.2% | -22.8 |
