← Capybara Cards DTR Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Capybara Cards DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
5-7-2
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
44.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1457
· median 1460
· range 1415–1495
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1263
Q3 1485
1633
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 28.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 54.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 13.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
