← Capybara Cards DTR Store Championship
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Capybara Cards DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
7-2-2
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.2%
avg ELO +6.7 per match
expected value
58.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1493
· median 1493
· range 1493–1493
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1263
Q3 1485
1633
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.7% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 61.5% | +6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 28.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 13.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
