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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Capybara Cards DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.7% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 65.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 28.9% | 7 | 6-0-1 | 92.9% | 77.3% | 71.6% | +10.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 13.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |