← DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 78.6% | 69.1% | 58.7% | 59.9% | 1244 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 5.6% | 10 | 70.0% | 41.2% | 56.8% | 46.7% | 1578 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 5.6% | 13 | 73.1% | 59.6% | 56.3% | 53.7% | 1443 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 8.3% | 15 | 66.7% | 62.0% | 54.3% | 53.7% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 75.0% | 58.0% | 54.2% | 52.3% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 58.3% | 53.6% | 53.8% | 52.3% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 5.6% | 12 | 62.5% | 57.8% | 52.5% | 51.9% | 1296 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 8.3% | 16 | 68.8% | 61.4% | 52.1% | 51.8% | 1319 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 42.9% | 48.6% | 52.0% | 52.6% | 1117 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 11.1% | 22 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 50.5% | 52.6% | 1243 | — |
| 11 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.2% | 50.5% | 53.2% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 52.9% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1232 | — |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 63.3% | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.9% | 46.0% | 47.8% | 1211 | — |
| 15 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.9% | 46.0% | 47.8% | 1211 | — |
| 16 | Fire Suited | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.5% | 45.7% | 48.7% | 1121 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 2.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.0% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 28.6% | 50.4% | 45.1% | 51.8% | 921 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 46.1% | 45.0% | 46.3% | 1291 | — |
| 20 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.6% | 10 | 35.0% | 35.6% | 44.0% | 43.3% | 1244 | — |
| 21 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 2.8% | 7 | 14.3% | 38.5% | 43.1% | 47.1% | 1013 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Slimes | 2 | 5.6% | 11 | 18.2% | 28.5% | 42.7% | 43.3% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.9% | 42.5% | 46.2% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 5.6% | 9 | 11.1% | 25.5% | 40.0% | 40.8% | 1135 | ↓ low |