← Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobby Lords Palmerston North Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 90.0% | 68.7% | 60.0% | 57.9% | 1275 | — |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 75.0% | 72.1% | 56.7% | 59.1% | 1276 | — |
| 3 | Slimes | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 70.0% | 58.9% | 54.4% | 53.7% | 1217 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 65.0% | 46.7% | 54.2% | 49.8% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 10.7% | 14 | 60.7% | 53.6% | 53.5% | 51.7% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.1% | 52.5% | 48.5% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | 53.8% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 10.7% | 14 | 53.6% | 59.6% | 52.0% | 54.2% | 1196 | — |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 63.6% | 48.9% | 51.3% | 48.8% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 3 | 10.7% | 13 | 53.8% | 47.1% | 49.6% | 47.6% | 1240 | — |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 45.1% | 47.5% | 45.9% | 1244 | — |
| 12 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 50.0% | 63.2% | 46.7% | 53.1% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.3% | 46.0% | 46.6% | 1154 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Triskit | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.3% | 46.0% | 46.6% | 1154 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.1% | 12 | 25.0% | 35.1% | 42.7% | 44.6% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.6% | 41.8% | 46.0% | 1141 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.6% | 7 | 14.3% | 40.6% | 41.0% | 46.0% | 1013 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 30.0% | 42.3% | 40.5% | 44.9% | 1245 | — |
| 19 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.7% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1015 | ↓ low |