← HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HP Wolvesden DTR Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Rile 14 32.6% 74 64.9% 59.2% 57.2% 54.9% 1389 ↑ top
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 2.3% 6 50.0% 57.4% 56.1% 58.0% 1164 ↓ low
3 Water Allies 1 2.3% 7 71.4% 56.6% 55.7% 52.3% 1345
4 Fire Aggro 3 7.0% 14 57.1% 56.5% 53.5% 55.2% 1252
5 Fire Suzaku 2 4.7% 14 57.1% 54.4% 52.7% 53.0% 1358
6 Water Genbu 1 2.3% 10 60.0% 59.3% 52.1% 53.9% 1467 ↑ top
7 Wind Shadowstrike 4 9.3% 34 54.4% 53.1% 51.6% 51.7% 1328
8 Fire Umbra Ranger 2 4.7% 13 53.8% 55.5% 50.0% 51.6% 1245
9 Water Aetherwing 1 2.3% 8 37.5% 45.9% 49.2% 51.1% 1341
10 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 4.7% 15 46.7% 51.6% 47.2% 48.9% 1340
11 Horse and Taxes 2 4.7% 9 55.6% 49.4% 46.4% 45.8% 1510 ↑ top
12 Wind Umbra Diana 1 2.3% 8 43.8% 47.3% 45.9% 47.2% 1446 ↑ top
13 Wind Allies 4 9.3% 25 36.0% 40.5% 45.5% 46.6% 1178 ↓ low
14 Water Slimes 1 2.3% 6 50.0% 52.2% 45.4% 47.6% 1269
15 Fire Suited 1 2.3% 9 44.4% 41.6% 45.4% 44.7% 1365
16 Fire Byakko 1 2.3% 7 57.1% 51.2% 45.3% 45.6% 1472 ↑ top
17 Fire Oblation 1 2.3% 7 50.0% 53.7% 45.3% 47.7% 1348
18 Fire Polkhawk 1 2.3% 5 20.0% 52.7% 43.6% 50.7% 1041 ↓ low
19 Wind Seiryuu 3 7.0% 12 37.5% 35.7% 42.5% 42.2% 1390 ↑ top
20 Fire Crux Mage 4 9.3% 25 48.0% 49.2% 40.8% 42.5% 1333
21 Slimes 1 2.3% 8 25.0% 38.1% 40.3% 42.9% 1256
22 Wind Razorgale 1 2.3% 7 28.6% 43.7% 40.2% 44.3% 1138 ↓ low
23 Wind Umbra Ciel 1 2.3% 8 37.5% 29.6% 39.5% 36.4% 1467 ↑ top
24 Wind Exia 1 2.3% 5 0.0% 26.7% 38.7% 40.5% 1157 ↓ low
25 Fire Slimes 1 2.3% 4 0.0% 32.3% 34.5% 38.6% 1098 ↓ low