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Fire AggroTier 2
at Plenty of Games Distorted Reflections Regionals
decks
3
(6.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
9-11-3
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
43.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1239
· median 1287
· range 1116–1315
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1200
Q3 1408
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 43.7% | -3.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
