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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.2% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 57.5% | +3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.7% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duplicitous Replication | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |