Fire RileTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 17 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Jayare 83 cards · placed #3
• NynjaTurtle 81 cards · placed #4
• Tien 81 cards · placed #5
• gearfour 85 cards · placed #6
• AzNat 85 cards · placed #7
• Stretch 83 cards · placed #8
• Carver 83 cards · placed #10
• Stevenfireore 82 cards · placed #12
• Mumsky 87 cards · placed #13
• MAD 83 cards · placed #17
• Vaccie 85 cards · placed #23
• Malxy 85 cards · placed #24
• VoXieL 85 cards · placed #25
• Genki 83 cards · placed #27
• WhatDoYouMinh 83 cards · placed #29
• MattReaddit 85 cards · placed #33
• Vipercdx 74 cards · placed #46

In 19 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Fiery Interference, Tariff Ring, Duplicitous Replication. Losers more often ran: Flame Sweep, Reduce to Ash, Rending Flames.

↑ Played more by winners

Fiery Interference

Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 11, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.

Tariff Ring

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 13.

Duplicitous Replication

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 13.

↓ Played more by losers

Flame Sweep

Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 9, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 10.

Reduce to Ash

Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.4.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 11, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.

Rending Flames

Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 11.

Stalwart Shieldmate

Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 12.

Lorraine, Blademaster

Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 12.

Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge

Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 13.