← Plenty of Games Distorted Reflections Regionals
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Plenty of Games Distorted Reflections Regionals
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-1-2
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.7%
avg ELO +8.0 per match
expected value
58.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1419
· median 1419
· range 1419–1419
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1200
Q3 1408
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.1% | +12.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
