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Water AlliesTier 1
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decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
5-6-3
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.8%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1224
· median 1224
· range 1094–1353
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1200
Q3 1408
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
