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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Plenty of Games Distorted Reflections Regionals
decks
3
(6.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-8-2
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1435
· median 1327
· range 1290–1689
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1200
Q3 1408
1689
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.7% | -6.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.4% | -21.7 |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
