EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 9 | 10.2% | 54 | 68.5% | 58.9% | 56.9% | 54.0% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 78.6% | 73.3% | 56.5% | 59.3% | 1352 | — |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 3 | 3.4% | 21 | 66.7% | 56.6% | 55.5% | 52.8% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 78.6% | 61.7% | 53.4% | 51.7% | 1341 | — |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 6.8% | 41 | 62.2% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 49.4% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 6 | 6.8% | 40 | 58.8% | 56.3% | 51.5% | 51.4% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Tera Tamer | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 49.0% | 51.3% | 55.2% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.3% | 14 | 60.7% | 53.0% | 51.1% | 50.4% | 1340 | — |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 3.4% | 15 | 43.3% | 49.3% | 50.7% | 52.2% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 2.3% | 13 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 50.6% | 52.7% | 1266 | — |
| 11 | Horse and Taxes | 3 | 3.4% | 19 | 63.2% | 59.5% | 50.4% | 50.0% | 1347 | — |
| 12 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 2.3% | 14 | 50.0% | 34.7% | 49.9% | 44.0% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Suited | 5 | 5.7% | 36 | 58.3% | 55.6% | 49.0% | 48.9% | 1270 | — |
| 14 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 48.8% | 50.6% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Fractal | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 36.7% | 48.4% | 43.4% | 1559 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.7% | 48.3% | 48.0% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Aggro | 11 | 12.5% | 47 | 46.8% | 53.9% | 48.1% | 51.5% | 1232 | — |
| 18 | Slimes | 4 | 4.5% | 25 | 46.0% | 47.6% | 47.8% | 48.3% | 1289 | — |
| 19 | Water Allies | 2 | 2.3% | 11 | 45.5% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 47.8% | 1321 | — |
| 20 | Fire Suzaku | 4 | 4.5% | 26 | 44.2% | 39.8% | 46.4% | 45.6% | 1337 | — |
| 21 | Wind Exia | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 55.0% | 46.1% | 49.8% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 25.0% | 40.4% | 46.1% | 48.7% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 3.4% | 20 | 37.5% | 44.4% | 45.3% | 47.0% | 1232 | — |
| 24 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.3% | 44.8% | 44.4% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 2.3% | 12 | 29.2% | 39.1% | 44.7% | 45.9% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 59.5% | 44.6% | 49.9% | 1041 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 44.9% | 44.4% | 46.2% | 1333 | — |
| 28 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.8% | 44.3% | 47.3% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.0% | 43.8% | 45.4% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 2.3% | 10 | 30.0% | 47.6% | 42.8% | 46.8% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 60.6% | 42.2% | 51.2% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Wind Allies | 2 | 2.3% | 14 | 25.0% | 39.7% | 41.7% | 45.1% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 1.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.7% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Water Diao Chan | 1 | 1.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 40.9% | 39.2% | 45.6% | 1076 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Wind Beast | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 8.3% | 25.5% | 38.9% | 39.1% | 1283 | — |
| 37 | Wind Cats | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 8.3% | 25.5% | 38.9% | 39.1% | 1283 | — |