Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Michigan DTR Regionals
decks
7
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
67
31-29-7
overall winrate
51.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1340
· range 1123–1526
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1171
Q3 1353
1750
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.7% | 24 | 11-9-4 | 54.2% | 53.6% | 49.4% | -0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.0% | -7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.3% | -8.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 66.4% | +9.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.8% | -6.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.8% | -19.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.6% | -11.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.5 |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
