Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Michigan DTR Regionals
decks
3
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
6-22-0
overall winrate
21.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.6%
avg ELO -6.7 per match
expected value
29.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
33.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1150
· median 1179
· range 1089–1182
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1171
Q3 1353
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.7% | 8 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 23.0% | -13.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.4% | -13.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
