Michigan DTR Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Rile	Tier 1	38	43.7%	116-99-13	53.7%	52.2%	52.0%	51.1%	1307	—
2		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	7	8.0%	31-29-7	51.5%	46.2%	51.4%	48.1%	1333	—
3		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	6	6.9%	29-17-4	62.0%	56.9%	52.9%	52.6%	1449	↑ top
4		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	6	6.9%	37-18-2	66.7%	59.1%	57.8%	54.4%	1353	↑ top
5		Fire Suited	Tier 1	5	5.7%	22-18-1	54.9%	53.6%	49.7%	50.3%	1338	—
6		Fire Exia	Tier 2	4	4.6%	14-16-1	46.8%	49.3%	44.9%	47.5%	1263	—
7		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	4	4.6%	14-20-4	42.1%	45.2%	47.7%	48.6%	1228	—
8		Water Allies	Tier 1	4	4.6%	24-15-2	61.0%	69.8%	52.2%	58.6%	1294	—
9		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	3	3.4%	16-12-0	57.1%	55.5%	51.4%	51.9%	1308	—
10		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 2	3	3.4%	8-14-0	36.4%	48.3%	40.5%	45.3%	1186	↓ low
11		Fire Oblation	Tier 2	3	3.4%	10-17-1	37.5%	54.2%	43.5%	53.0%	1240	—
12		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	3	3.4%	6-22-0	21.4%	31.6%	29.6%	33.7%	1150	↓ low
13		Horse and Taxes	Tier 2	3	3.4%	16-8-1	66.0%	51.7%	58.7%	53.4%	1484	↑ top
14		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	2	2.3%	13-6-0	68.4%	65.6%	57.5%	57.4%	1248	—
15		Water Fractal	Tier 2	2	2.3%	9-9-0	50.0%	36.8%	51.0%	42.6%	1402	↑ top
16		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 2	2	2.3%	4-9-1	32.1%	42.7%	38.1%	43.7%	1232	—
17		Fire Arisanna	Tier 3	1	1.1%	1-8-0	11.1%	31.7%	35.1%	38.0%	1056	↓ low
18		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 2	1	1.1%	7-4-0	63.6%	46.1%	52.0%	45.0%	1356	↑ top
19		Fire Neos	Tier 3	1	1.1%	2-5-0	28.6%	42.7%	42.5%	46.9%	1211	↓ low
20		Fire Slimes	Tier 3	1	1.1%	0-6-0	0.0%	33.0%	34.6%	43.4%	967	↓ low
21		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 3	1	1.1%	1-5-0	16.7%	27.4%	35.2%	34.2%	1068	↓ low
22		Water Aetherwing	Tier 3	1	1.1%	0-6-0	0.0%	26.8%	40.0%	42.6%	1045	↓ low
23		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 2	1	1.1%	5-3-0	62.5%	59.8%	56.2%	55.7%	1192	↓ low
24		Water Genbu	Tier 2	1	1.1%	5-3-0	62.5%	57.9%	56.1%	55.7%	1316	—
25		Water Tera Kongming	Tier 3	1	1.1%	3-5-0	37.5%	35.4%	43.1%	41.3%	1285	—
26		Water Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-3-0	50.0%	54.2%	50.2%	53.3%	1200	↓ low
27		Water Zander	Tier 3	1	1.1%	4-5-0	44.4%	40.8%	43.9%	41.3%	1274	—
28		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-5-0	37.5%	42.5%	55.1%	53.4%	1120	↓ low
29		Wind Arcane	Tier 2	1	1.1%	5-4-2	54.5%	56.4%	55.4%	56.6%	1226	—
30		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 3	1	1.1%	2-5-2	33.3%	42.9%	43.1%	45.1%	1297	—
31		Wind Astra Diana	Tier 3	1	1.1%	2-5-1	31.2%	37.8%	42.0%	40.2%	1132	↓ low
32		Wind Ciel	Tier 3	1	1.1%	2-5-1	31.2%	43.0%	41.1%	43.1%	1156	↓ low
33		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	1.1%	6-3-1	65.0%	52.0%	50.2%	48.5%	1415	↑ top
34		Wind Diana	Tier 3	1	1.1%	2-5-0	28.6%	38.8%	40.5%	42.8%	1184	↓ low
35		Wind Tera Silvie	Tier 3	1	1.1%	1-7-0	12.5%	34.5%	31.7%	39.8%	1077	↓ low
36		Wind Umbra Ciel	Tier 3	1	1.1%	4-5-2	45.5%	49.2%	45.8%	47.3%	1165	↓ low
37		Wind Wakeup Combo	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	49.3%	54.3%	53.2%	1125	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Rile 38 decks · 43.7%
• Fire Crux Mage 7 decks · 8.0%
• Wind Seiryuu 6 decks · 6.9%
• Wind Shadowstrike 6 decks · 6.9%
• Fire Suited 5 decks · 5.7%
• Fire Exia 4 decks · 4.6%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 4 decks · 4.6%
• Water Allies 4 decks · 4.6%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 3 decks · 3.4%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 3 decks · 3.4%
• Fire Oblation 3 decks · 3.4%
• Fire Suzaku 3 decks · 3.4%
• Horse and Taxes 3 decks · 3.4%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 2.3%
• Water Fractal 2 decks · 2.3%
• Water Penguin Mill 2 decks · 2.3%
• Fire Arisanna 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Neos 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Astra Ranger 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Genbu 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Tera Kongming 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Zander 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Arcane 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Astra Diana 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Ciel 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Diana 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Tera Silvie 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Umbra Ciel 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Wakeup Combo 1 deck · 1.1%