Fire ExiaTier 2
at Michigan DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.7% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 46.7% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.1% | -21.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Water Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 60 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Savage Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| General at Arms | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |