Fire SuitedTier 1
at Michigan DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.7% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.7% | +8.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suited Trickery | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paladin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Five of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sleight of Hand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ashen Riffle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Three of Spades | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |