Fire OblationTier 2
at Michigan DTR Regionals
decks
3
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
10-17-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1240
· median 1242
· range 1092–1386
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1171
Q3 1353
1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.7% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.4% | +11.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.2% | +20.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
