EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 66.2% | 58.1% | 59.4% | 1279 | — |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.2% | 57.1% | 53.1% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 78.6% | 52.8% | 55.8% | 50.0% | 1656 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 3 | 4.8% | 18 | 61.1% | 48.1% | 52.5% | 49.7% | 1487 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 8.1% | 32 | 57.8% | 53.9% | 52.4% | 52.8% | 1292 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 12.9% | 34 | 58.8% | 54.1% | 52.3% | 51.7% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 73.2% | 51.6% | 55.4% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 51.1% | 52.4% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 3 | 4.8% | 18 | 55.6% | 50.5% | 51.1% | 49.5% | 1256 | — |
| 10 | Water Umbra Guardian | 4 | 6.5% | 22 | 61.4% | 56.5% | 51.0% | 49.8% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 5 | 8.1% | 24 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 50.8% | 48.7% | 1290 | — |
| 12 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 4.8% | 16 | 50.0% | 54.1% | 49.6% | 52.0% | 1312 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 7 | 11.3% | 39 | 53.8% | 52.8% | 49.0% | 49.4% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Slimes | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.6% | 48.8% | 51.8% | 1237 | — |
| 15 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.3% | 47.5% | 48.3% | 1245 | — |
| 16 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 47.5% | 47.6% | 1231 | — |
| 17 | Fire Exia | 2 | 3.2% | 11 | 45.5% | 55.5% | 47.2% | 51.3% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 51.4% | 46.7% | 51.4% | 1006 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Diao Chan | 1 | 1.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.6% | 46.2% | 47.6% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Suited | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 45.9% | 45.9% | 46.6% | 1301 | — |
| 21 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | 51.2% | 1241 | — |
| 22 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 52.3% | 44.7% | 46.9% | 1226 | — |
| 23 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.3% | 44.2% | 46.2% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 3.2% | 11 | 31.8% | 28.3% | 44.2% | 42.9% | 1259 | — |
| 25 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 21.4% | 43.0% | 43.7% | 46.4% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.2% | 43.3% | 47.1% | 1253 | — |
| 27 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.6% | 41.8% | 43.8% | 1129 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 7.1% | 31.3% | 41.3% | 43.7% | 1031 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.9% | 41.2% | 45.1% | 1281 | — |
| 30 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.0% | 39.5% | 44.5% | 1247 | — |
| 31 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.7% | 38.8% | 42.9% | 1087 | ↓ low |