EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Seiryuu

56.2%

2.9% share · 6 matches

5.7% share · 12 matches

3rd

Fire Crux Lorraine

55.7%

11.4% share · 24 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aggro	2	5.7%	12	66.7%	69.6%	56.6%	58.7%	1304	—
2	Wind Seiryuu	1	2.9%	6	75.0%	53.5%	56.2%	50.1%	1520	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Lorraine	4	11.4%	24	64.6%	63.3%	55.7%	55.8%	1308	—
4	Fire Firebloom Burn	4	11.4%	23	58.7%	67.7%	53.9%	56.7%	1260	↓ low
5	Water Aetherwing	1	2.9%	6	58.3%	48.3%	52.9%	49.2%	1366	—
6	Water Allies	2	5.7%	11	59.1%	52.5%	52.4%	50.7%	1476	↑ top
7	Wind Shadowstrike	3	8.6%	16	62.5%	42.9%	51.2%	44.7%	1473	↑ top
8	Fire Suzaku	1	2.9%	6	50.0%	41.4%	49.7%	45.7%	1425	↑ top
9	Wind Allies	3	8.6%	16	53.1%	46.9%	47.1%	46.0%	1339	—
10	Wind Arcane	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	44.4%	45.0%	47.2%	1292	—
11	Water Fractal	4	11.4%	17	44.1%	50.8%	44.9%	47.9%	1290	—
12	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	5.7%	8	37.5%	43.0%	44.5%	44.8%	1432	↑ top
13	Wind Crux Mage	1	2.9%	3	33.3%	33.1%	43.3%	39.3%	1333	—
14	Slimes	1	2.9%	4	25.0%	46.4%	42.9%	48.3%	1303	—
15	Water Genbu	1	2.9%	5	30.0%	46.1%	42.4%	46.2%	1185	↓ low
16	Water Astra Ranger	1	2.9%	5	20.0%	38.3%	41.7%	43.0%	1186	↓ low
17	Fire Exia	1	2.9%	6	33.3%	36.2%	41.2%	39.6%	1176	↓ low
18	Water Kongming	1	2.9%	6	0.0%	28.1%	40.0%	42.0%	1202	↓ low
19	Wind Ciel	1	2.9%	6	16.7%	33.9%	37.8%	39.5%	1086	↓ low