Fire AggroTier 2
at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL
decks
5
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49
25-24-0
overall winrate
51.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1386
· range 1178–1408
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1232
Q3 1400
1668
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.1% | 17 | 9-8-0 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 52.3% | +0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.8% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.3% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Water Genbu | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
