Horse and TaxesTier 1
at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.1% | 32 | 13-19-0 | 40.6% | 41.7% | 48.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 51.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.2% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 47.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.4% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 51.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -0.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.0% | +1.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Genbu | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Sparks | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |