Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL
decks
13
(10.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
114
65-47-2
overall winrate
57.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
53.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1397
· median 1392
· range 1162–1668
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1232
Q3 1400
1668
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.1% | 41 | 22-18-1 | 54.9% | 54.4% | 50.9% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.9% | -0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.8% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 48.5% | -0.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.8% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 52.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.8% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.1% | +1.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.0% | -1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Crux Sight, Inert Sword. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Reduce to Ash, Stalwart Shieldmate.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Inert Sword
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit Blade: Ensoul
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Favorable Winds
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Hone by Fire
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chamber of Reflections | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |