Fire ExiaTier 2
at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL
decks
4
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
18-13-4
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1346
· median 1310
· range 1271–1493
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1232
Q3 1400
1668
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.1% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 51.4% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.0% | +1.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.2% | +1.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
