Fire Crux MageTier 1
at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.1% | 16 | 9-7-0 | 56.2% | 55.0% | 50.4% | +0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 51.8% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.9% | -1.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 4 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 4 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |