Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL
decks
15
(11.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
132
53-74-5
overall winrate
42.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
44.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1281
· range 1160–1543
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1232
Q3 1400
1668
13% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 53.1% | 46 | 17-27-2 | 39.1% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.1% | +0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.8% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 47.4% | -1.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.8% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 48.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 51.3% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 48.2% | -1.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Blinding Orb, Cleansing Reunion. Losers more often ran: Tempest Downfall, Resolute Stand, Arrow Trap.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Beseech the Winds
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Arrow Trap
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Zephyr | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |