← Yeti Gaming Webcam Server DTR Regional #2
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Server DTR Regional #2
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 62.7% | +6.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 55.3% | +4.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 44.3% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.2% | +4.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Grand Crusader's Ring, Crystallized Destiny. Losers more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Surreptitious Scheme, The Looking Glass.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |