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Fire Crux LorraineTier 1

at Yeti Gaming Webcam Server DTR Regional #2

decks
10 (9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55 26-21-8
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3% avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
52.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1383 · median 1406 · range 1214–1560 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083 Q1 1281 Q3 1442 1750
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 9.1% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.5% -1.4
Wind Seiryuu 8.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.7% +2.6
Water Aetherwing 7.3% 5 0-3-2 20.0% 33.3% 40.6% -5.4
Fire Aggro 6.4% 6 6-0-0 100.0% 80.0% 62.7% +6.8
Wind Razorgale 5.5% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 55.3% +4.0
Wind Wakeup Combo 5.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.5% 3 0-1-2 33.3% 42.9% 50.6% +0.5
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.5% 6 1-4-1 25.0% 35.0% 44.3% -3.0
Wind Shadowstrike 4.5% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 51.5% +0.8
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.6% 0
Fire Oblation 3.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 47.6% -1.8
Fire Crux Merlin 2.7% 0
Fire Suited 2.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 54.2% +4.1
Water Tera Mage 2.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.2
Wind Astra Cleric 2.7% 0
Water Allies 1.8% 0
Water Genbu 1.8% 0
Water Neos 1.8% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.1% -2.8
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.1% +4.9
Fire Aetherwing 0.9% 0
Fire Slimes 0.9% 0
Fire Suzaku 0.9% 0
Slimes 0.9% 0
Water Fractal 0.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.3% +3.1
Water Ravishing Mill 0.9% 0
Wind Arcane 0.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.2% -8.5
Wind Byakko 0.9% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.4
Wind Neos 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.1% +9.7
Wind Silvie 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.9
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Grand Crusader's Ring, Crystallized Destiny. Losers more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Surreptitious Scheme, The Looking Glass.

Played more by winners
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Immolation Trap
Winning decks ran 2.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Surreptitious Scheme
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
The Looking Glass
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -1.00 0 3 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 3 0 0
Undying Dreams -0.67 0 2 1
Backup Charger -0.67 0 2 1
Inert Sword -0.67 0 2 1
Votive Runeblade +0.67 2 0 0
Turbo Charge -0.67 0 2 0
Escape the Wreckage -0.67 0 2 0
Surreptitious Scheme -0.33 1 2 0
Expose Darkness +0.33 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +0.33 1 0 2
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.33 2 1 0
Hone by Fire +0.33 1 0 2
Sword of Seeking +0.33 1 0 2
Honorable Vanguard +0.33 1 0 1
Three of Hearts -0.33 0 1 2
Devastating Blow -0.33 0 1 2
Fluffy Shopkeep -0.33 0 1 2
Flame Sweep +0.33 1 0 2
Ornamental Greatsword +0.33 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.33 2 1 0
Sword Saint's Vow -0.33 0 1 0
Flamewreath Call -0.33 0 1 0
The Looking Glass -0.33 1 2 0
Immolation Trap +0.33 2 1 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension -0.33 0 1 1
Rending Flames +0.33 1 0 2
Regal Inquisition +0.33 2 1 0
Under Fire +0.33 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide +0.33 1 0 0
Smoke Out -0.33 0 1 0
Sword of Shadows -0.33 0 1 0
Fiery Interference -0.33 0 1 0
Annul Spell -0.33 0 1 0
Tempered Steel +0.33 1 0 0
Duplicitous Replication +0.33 1 0 0
Arondight, Azure Blade +0.33 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ensoul +0.33 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes -0.33 0 1 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +0.33 1 0 0
Savage Slash +0.33 1 0 0
Imperial Seal -0.33 0 1 0
Clumsy Apprentice -0.33 0 1 0
Spellward Scepter +0.33 1 0 0
Firetongue +0.33 1 0 0
Resolute Stand +0.00 1 1 1
Reduce to Ash +0.00 1 1 1
Liminal Guide +0.00 1 1 1
Nullifying Mirror +0.00 1 1 0
Incapacitate +0.00 1 1 0
Disenchant +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/35078/archetypes/Fire Crux Lorraine