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Fire Crux MageTier 2

at Yeti Gaming Webcam Server DTR Regional #2

decks
10 (9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
56 24-25-7
overall winrate
49.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7% avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
48.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1405 · median 1416 · range 1129–1563 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083 Q1 1281 Q3 1442 1750
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 9.1% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.5% +1.4
Wind Seiryuu 8.2% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 38.5% -6.6
Water Aetherwing 7.3% 7 3-3-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.9% +1.4
Fire Aggro 6.4% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 52.4% +1.3
Wind Razorgale 5.5% 4 1-1-2 50.0% 50.0% 46.3% -2.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 5.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.3% -5.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.5% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.4% -2.7
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.5% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.1% +1.6
Wind Shadowstrike 4.5% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.3% +2.1
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.6% 0
Fire Oblation 3.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -1.5
Fire Crux Merlin 2.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.4% -3.4
Fire Suited 2.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.9% +11.1
Water Tera Mage 2.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 52.2% +2.2
Wind Astra Cleric 2.7% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 47.0% -2.2
Water Allies 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.5% +4.0
Water Genbu 1.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 49.2% -0.6
Water Neos 1.8% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 1.8% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 0
Fire Aetherwing 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.8% +2.9
Fire Slimes 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.3% -5.9
Fire Suzaku 0.9% 0
Slimes 0.9% 0
Water Fractal 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.4
Water Ravishing Mill 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.5% +4.0
Wind Arcane 0.9% 0
Wind Byakko 0.9% 0
Wind Neos 0.9% 0
Wind Silvie 0.9% 0
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Hasty Messenger -1.00 0 2 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 2 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 2 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman -1.00 0 2 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 1
Crux Sight +0.50 1 0 1
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.50 1 0 1
Sudden Steel -0.50 0 1 1
Fast Cure -0.50 0 1 1
Cremation Ritual +0.50 1 0 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 0 1 1
Immolation Trap -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 1
Tariff Ring -0.50 0 1 1
Smoke Out +0.50 1 0 0
Bandage Wound +0.50 1 0 0
Nascent Blast +0.50 1 0 0
Tome of Sorcery +0.50 1 0 0
Nimue, Cursed Touch +0.50 1 0 0
Deflecting Edge +0.50 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide +0.00 1 1 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension +0.00 1 1 0
Chilling Touch +0.00 1 1 0
Library Witch +0.00 1 1 0
Duplicitous Replication +0.00 1 1 0
Reduce to Ash +0.00 1 1 0
Incarnate Majesty +0.00 1 1 0
Undying Dreams +0.00 1 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 1 1 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +0.00 1 1 0
Swift Recruit +0.00 1 1 0
Annul Spell +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/35078/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage