EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 松江貓腳印 DTR店家冠軍賽. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Umbra Guardian

58.0%

4.7% share · 16 matches

2.3% share · 9 matches

11.6% share · 28 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Luxem Zander	1	2.3%	9	94.4%	69.6%	60.2%	56.0%	1441	↑ top
2	Fire Umbra Guardian	2	4.7%	16	71.9%	66.6%	58.0%	57.7%	1384	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Lorraine	5	11.6%	28	60.7%	51.4%	55.8%	52.1%	1381	↑ top
4	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	2.3%	6	66.7%	48.9%	54.7%	50.6%	1543	↑ top
5	Fire Aggro	1	2.3%	6	50.0%	45.9%	52.8%	50.7%	1405	↑ top
6	Wind Shadowstrike	5	11.6%	28	51.8%	50.4%	52.7%	51.5%	1296	—
7	Wind Crux Lorraine	3	7.0%	19	57.9%	57.6%	51.6%	52.3%	1416	↑ top
8	Water Genbu	3	7.0%	18	52.8%	52.2%	50.4%	50.0%	1389	↑ top
9	Fire Suzaku	2	4.7%	12	45.8%	50.7%	49.2%	51.6%	1208	↓ low
10	Fire Exia	1	2.3%	6	50.0%	50.9%	48.9%	50.0%	1231	↓ low
11	Water Aetherwing	2	4.7%	8	43.8%	37.8%	48.0%	44.2%	1469	↑ top
12	Wind Seiryuu	1	2.3%	6	33.3%	54.7%	47.8%	54.6%	1203	↓ low
13	Fire Crux Mage	2	4.7%	10	45.0%	39.9%	46.0%	45.2%	1293	—
14	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.3%	7	50.0%	58.9%	45.8%	51.0%	1161	↓ low
15	Fire Tera Cleric	1	2.3%	4	50.0%	55.4%	45.5%	49.2%	1257	↓ low
16	Slimes	2	4.7%	11	40.9%	56.5%	44.8%	50.6%	1279	—
17	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	2.3%	5	20.0%	41.5%	44.4%	47.9%	1075	↓ low
18	Water Tera Cleric	1	2.3%	4	25.0%	36.2%	43.1%	43.2%	1188	↓ low
19	Water Ravishing Mill	1	2.3%	4	25.0%	34.1%	42.2%	41.7%	1300	—
20	Water Allies	5	11.6%	21	35.7%	44.0%	41.6%	46.2%	1220	↓ low
21	Fire Suited	1	2.3%	3	0.0%	25.8%	40.0%	38.4%	1315	—
22	Water Astra Ranger	2	4.7%	5	0.0%	27.9%	40.0%	42.2%	1301	—