← Happyland Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Happyland Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.5% | 7 | 92.9% | 66.6% | 62.0% | 56.7% | 1500 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 80.0% | 50.1% | 57.8% | 49.8% | 1402 | — |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 6.5% | 7 | 64.3% | 63.4% | 54.2% | 56.8% | 1325 | — |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 6.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 58.6% | 52.9% | 54.5% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 6.5% | 7 | 64.3% | 55.5% | 50.7% | 50.4% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 6 | 19.4% | 14 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 50.4% | 50.1% | 1434 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 4 | 12.9% | 14 | 53.6% | 59.6% | 49.8% | 52.5% | 1303 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 36.5% | 47.5% | 44.4% | 1577 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 9.7% | 8 | 56.2% | 44.8% | 47.4% | 45.1% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 45.0% | 44.6% | 1266 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 41.7% | 41.4% | 46.3% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.6% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1372 | — |
| 13 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.1% | 40.0% | 42.6% | 1324 | — |
| 14 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.2% | 2 | 0.0% | 31.7% | 40.0% | 38.5% | 1395 | — |
| 15 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 10.0% | 32.9% | 38.6% | 40.9% | 1161 | ↓ low |