← Happyland Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Happyland Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Mage 2 6.5% 7 92.9% 66.6% 62.0% 56.7% 1500 ↑ top
2 Wind Astra Cleric 1 3.2% 5 80.0% 50.1% 57.8% 49.8% 1402
3 Fire Suzaku 2 6.5% 7 64.3% 63.4% 54.2% 56.8% 1325
4 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 6.5% 8 50.0% 58.6% 52.9% 54.5% 1159 ↓ low
5 Wind Wakeup Combo 2 6.5% 7 64.3% 55.5% 50.7% 50.4% 1456 ↑ top
6 Fire Crux Lorraine 6 19.4% 14 50.0% 51.2% 50.4% 50.1% 1434 ↑ top
7 Water Genbu 4 12.9% 14 53.6% 59.6% 49.8% 52.5% 1303 ↓ low
8 Water Fractal 1 3.2% 4 37.5% 36.5% 47.5% 44.4% 1577 ↑ top
9 Wind Seiryuu 3 9.7% 8 56.2% 44.8% 47.4% 45.1% 1453 ↑ top
10 Fire Byakko 1 3.2% 4 50.0% 48.7% 45.0% 44.6% 1266 ↓ low
11 Water Crux Lorraine 1 3.2% 4 12.5% 41.7% 41.4% 46.3% 1159 ↓ low
12 Fire Aggro 2 6.5% 3 0.0% 34.6% 40.0% 43.3% 1372
13 Water Aetherwing 2 6.5% 2 0.0% 38.1% 40.0% 42.6% 1324
14 Wind Shadowstrike 1 3.2% 2 0.0% 31.7% 40.0% 38.5% 1395
15 Fire Suited 1 3.2% 5 10.0% 32.9% 38.6% 40.9% 1161 ↓ low