← FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 83.3% | 72.0% | 58.2% | 59.2% | 1282 | — |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 7.5% | 18 | 69.4% | 72.4% | 55.3% | 57.6% | 1284 | — |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 5.0% | 12 | 66.7% | 58.2% | 54.7% | 52.9% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 10.0% | 24 | 66.7% | 56.7% | 54.3% | 51.4% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 75.0% | 63.6% | 53.3% | 53.5% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.5% | 52.7% | 53.2% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.8% | 52.0% | 49.9% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.5% | 52.0% | 53.4% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 5.0% | 13 | 46.2% | 36.1% | 51.0% | 46.2% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Exia | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 58.3% | 38.9% | 50.7% | 45.0% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 5.0% | 12 | 45.8% | 59.9% | 50.5% | 54.7% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.2% | 50.0% | 49.2% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 49.1% | 46.8% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.0% | 11 | 45.5% | 52.1% | 48.8% | 50.7% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Allies | 2 | 5.0% | 13 | 46.2% | 40.8% | 48.7% | 46.6% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.4% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 1343 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.7% | 47.5% | 50.1% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 3 | 7.5% | 17 | 35.3% | 45.7% | 47.0% | 48.7% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 7.5% | 15 | 43.3% | 41.2% | 45.1% | 44.9% | 1287 | — |
| 20 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 45.2% | 45.0% | 46.6% | 1262 | — |
| 21 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 41.1% | 44.8% | 42.9% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Water Triskit | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 45.7% | 44.4% | 48.9% | 1055 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 5.0% | 11 | 31.8% | 34.7% | 43.5% | 43.8% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 24 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 2.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.1% | 43.3% | 45.9% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Wind Arcane Rai | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 16.7% | 43.9% | 42.2% | 47.9% | 1021 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Diana | 1 | 2.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.5% | 40.0% | 44.7% | 978 | ↓ low |