Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at 12/20 PTM Online Regional
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-3-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.1%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1331
· range 1275–1386
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1239
Q3 1442
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
